This latest poll really emphasizes that Republicans are going to the loonies (as if we didn't already know).  Only 42% of Republicans in the DKoss poll think that the President is a U.S. citizen!  And 30% "don't know"!

Their tent gets smaller and smaller every day.  While the breakdowns aren't there in this summary story, since 77% overall think he is (with only 11% dissenting) I guess the opinions of Democrats and Independents must be nearly unanimous.

Republican's inability to kill this nonsense is emblematic of their total disarray.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/0 7/31/fewer_than_half_of_republicans_thin k_obama_is_a_citizen.html

If you haven't yet read the President's address in Turkey today, please do.  It reminds me forcefully once again why I'm so proud that this man is our President.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/040 9/20927_Page2.html

According to ABC's The Note:

<With the NGA conference taking place this weekend, it's a big weekend for governors on the Sunday shows. Fresh from signing California's budget, Schwarzenegger will appear Sunday morning on ABC's "This Week with George Stephanopoulos." </p>

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) will join Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) on NBC's "Meet the Press." "Fox News Sunday" has booked Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D), South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford (R), and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R). >

That means 5 of the 6 governors appearing on the Sunday shows, or 83%, are Republicans.  This is despite the fact that 56% of our nation's governors are Democrats.

Am I the only one getting sick of our news organizations' overrepresentation of Republican voices?

Begich has expanded his lead to 1,061 votes as of 3:10 pm Alaska time on Friday, 11/14.

The totals:

Begich 137,527
Stevens 136,466

Rhodes Cook has a great article up at the Crystal Ball: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystal ball/article.php?id=FRC2008111301

He talks about the demise of the Republican lock and points out that the main driver has been the "big states", those with more than 15 EVs.  Some of the younger folks on this site may not remember, but it wasn't that long ago that some of the bluest states weren't blue at all.

Consider, in the last 5 elections California, New York, Illinois, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have gone 25 for 25 to the Democrats.  Yet, as Cook shows, in the prior five elections those same 5 states were only 3 for 25 for the Democrats.  That's why Reagan and Bush I were able to roll up such huge EC victories - they dominated in the big states that we count on now.

Excellent read - please check the article out!

The final NC early vote numbers are in.  An astonishing 2,573,206 voters have cast their ballots.  The previous record was less than 1 million.  There are now 6,256,671 registered voters in NC, so 41% of all registered voters have voted.  This means that if we have a record 70% turnout this year, nearly 60% of all the votes have already been cast.

The final breakdown is 51.5% D, 30.1% R, 18.4% U, 0.1% L.  26.5% are Black/African American and 56.4% are Female.  Interestingly, the Black vote had dropped to 25.7% by midday yesterday, then surged.  Unless there was a mistake in the numbers, 38 thousand of the last 52 thousand votes were cast by this group.  

To compare, all registered voters are 45.7% D, 32.0%R, 22.3%U, and 0.1%L.

Using the formula I've used before (85%D, 10%R, 50%U) this would put the Obama lead at just over 300 thousand.  Interestingly, this puts his lead at 12%, which is exactly the same as the R2K poll showed for early voters.  If correct, and if the 70% total turnout is right, McCain will need to get nearly 60% of the vote Tuesday to win.  Of course, this is just speculation, so all you NC Obama supporters who have not yet voted: No excuses - get out to vote on Tuesday!

The 9th day of early voting is completed.  I should have pointed out yesterday that the voting stats come from the great NC Board of Elections site: http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/

There are now 1,192,156 votes in, which means nearly 140,000 additional votes were cast yesterday.  This leaves us on track to top 2,000,000 early votes this year.

Interestingly, the makeup of the voters I gave yesterday (55% D, 28% R, 17% U, 28% Black/African American, and 56% female) remains exactly the same.  I keep expecting this to close in, but it hasn't since about the third day.  It will be fascinating to see the mix a week from now.   Applying the same fairly conservative formula (85% D, 10% R, 50% U) Obama's banked lead has grown from 175 thousand to 193 thousand.

More after the jump ...

We now have 8 days of voting in the books, and as of 5:15 today (10/24), 1,058,992 votes have been cast in NC.  Given that some folks were probably still at the polls, that 8 days remain, and that the final 8 include 2 Saturdays vs. none in the first 8, it appears that well over 2 million early votes will be cast here.  Since there are 6 million registered voters, assuming a 70% turnout means that at least half of our votes will be cast early.

Some stats:  so far we have 55% D, 28% R, and 17% unaffiliated.  28% are African American, and 56% are female - all very strong demographics for Obama.  If we assume, very conservatively, that 85% of the D, 10% of the R, and 50% of the U vote for Obama, he's already banked a 175,000 vote margin.  In reality, it's probably over 200,000.  Thus, it is likely that Obama will already have a 300,000 or more vote margin locked in before election day.

Than means McCain will have to absolutely dominate on 11/4 to win.  I don't think he will!  I'm betting that Obama will win NC by more than most expect.